Climate change exchange at Skeptic
Patrick Frank argues that climate forecasts are unreliable because the different models don't agree with each other, taken together are not better than a simple linear forcing model, and not all the parameter uncertainties are propagated through.
Tapio Schneider counters that despite these limitations (mostly having to do with cloud formation), the underlying physics is well-understood and all the models agree that the warming is anthropogenic.
(As I posted earlier, people are looking into forecasting errors.)
My view: anthropogenic climate change is by far the best theory we have. Climate models are not as predictive as we like, but that is being improved upon. We will see how right they are, but if they are, inaction will be devastating to 3rd world agricultural populations.
![[info]](http://p-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small}
smandal) wrote,
